Restore Illinois has worked — for now
ILEPI study lauds state’s reopening in pandemic, but warns Illinoisans to ‘remain vigilant’
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, Gov. J.B. Pritzker, and Illinois Public Health Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike enjoy a rare lighthearted moment at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in February. (One Illinois/Ted Cox)
By Ted Cox
A new study praises Illinois for taking decisive early action on the COVID-19 pandemic and more cautiously easing restrictions after the first wave, finding that the state’s economic recovery “has generally been better than both the national average and the three hard-hit southern states of Arizona, Florida, and Texas.”
But it goes on to warn Illinoisans not to take progress for granted, calling for state residents to “remain vigilant” and observe the three W’s: wear a mask, watch social distancing, and wash hands.
The Illinois Economic Policy Institute declares in a study released Wednesday that “recent data suggest that Illinois’s economic re-opening plan has worked — for now.” It adds that the state’s economic recovery “has generally been better than both the national average and the three hard-hit southern states of Arizona, Florida, and Texas on five key metrics: mobility, businesses open, hours worked by employees, consumer spending, and unemployment claims.”
The ILEPI study praises the state response to COVID-19 as “quick, coordinated, and sustained,” with Gov. J.B. Pritzker “choosing to follow the science rather than rush to reopen too quickly.” It cites how Illinois was the second state to issue a stay-at-home order, March 21, behind only California and ahead of even hard-hit New York, and one of the last to allow that order to expire, May 29, two weeks behind Arizona, more than three weeks behind Florida, and a month behind Texas.
Illinois was also one of the first states to call for people in public to wear a mask, May 1. Texas only just imposed such an order early this month, and Arizona and Florida have yet to do so at all.
The results, according to ILEPI, show the wisdom of Pritzker’s science-based approach. As Arizona, Florida, and Texas have all seen testing positivity rates rise far above the mid-July national average of 9 percent — with Arizona the worst at 23 percent, Florida at 20, and Texas at 17 — Illinois has cut its positivity rate from 21 percent in mid-April to 3 percent, where it has hovered even as the state has moved on to the fourth phase of the Restore Illinois plan. Illinois hospitalizations per 1 million people also remain under the national average and well below those three Sun Belt states.
The study cites University of Chicago research finding that it was fears about the spread of the virus — not the simple closing of businesses — that caused consumers to rein in activity, and that as such Illinois’s recovery from the virus has led to a more robust economic recovery than those states still suffering through the protected first wave of the pandemic.
A measurement of “mobility to retail and recreation locations,” as measured by Google drawing from cellphone data, found that Illinois mobility was almost halved in mid-April, above the national average, but by mid-July was down just 8 percent, well ahead of the national average of 12 percent, with Florida mobility down 23 percent, Arizona down 22 percent, and Texas 16 percent.
As a result, Illinois small-business activity is now down 20 percent, lower than the national average of 21 percent and any of those three Sun Belt states, and hours worked by employees at small businesses are at the national average of being down 23 percent, ahead of Florida and Arizona, both at 30 percent, and Texas at 27.
Illinois consumer spending was down 31 percent in mid-April, right at the national average, but by early July was down just 6 percent, ahead of the national average of 7 percent. Of the three Sun Belt states, only Florida saw a lower reduction in consumer spending, 5 percent, but of course it was paying the price in increased infections.
State unemployment as a percentage of the total workforce in June was 10 percent, same as in Texas, but that placed both states below the national average of 11 percent.
ILEPI determined that “Illinois’s economic recovery has generally been better than both the national average and the three hard-hit southern states of Arizona, Florida, and Texas.” But it warned Illinoisans to “remain vigilant,” especially to guard against a second wave in the fall with the start of flu season. “If residents continue to do their part,” the study concluded, “the virus will be contained, the economy will remain open, and Illinois will emerge from the public health crisis stronger than other states.”