Pork, chicken at record levels for cold storage
Chinese agricultural trade concessions may not meet Trump’s expectations
Hogs at a farm in northern Illinois. (Shutterstock)
By Ted Cox
Supplies of frozen pork and chicken are at record levels as the year ends after setting new marks throughout 2019 — a consequence of President Trump’s trade war with China.
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture reports from the National Agricultural Statistics Service released this week found the amount of pork, chicken, and poultry in general all at record levels for cold storage.
FarmWeekNow.com reported: “It was the second consecutive month of record frozen pork supplies. We’ve had record frozen chicken supplies three times this year and total poultry twice. And in four other reports this year there have been record amounts of frozen lamb in storage.”
Among livestock, pork exports in particular have been hurt by Trump’s trade war with China, although there are hopes for a thaw as about a third of the Chinese hog herd has been wiped out by an outbreak of African swine fever, which has contributed to Chinese pledges to import as much as $40 billion in U.S. agricultural products, including pork and soybeans.
Experts have scoffed at that, however, as U.S. farm exports to China have never topped $26 billion in a year.
The amount of pork in cold storage set records over the summer with more than 600 million pounds frozen. Those levels typically plummet at the end of the year, but according to figures released this week, dating from the end of November, there were still about 575 million pounds of pork in cold storage. The last three years, the amount of frozen pork at the end of November was just over 500 million pounds, with additional reductions charted at the end of December.
After initially peaking at a record level in April, the supply of frozen chicken dropped in May, but it has been on a steady increase ever since, setting new records of just over 950 million pounds at the end of October and approaching a billion pounds at the end of November.
The beef market has been strong, so the amount of beef in cold storage has been below levels for the last three years throughout much of 2019, including a four-year low of just over 475 million pounds frozen at the end of November.
Don Close of Rabo AgriFinance told FarmWeekNow.com: “We do have a lot of pounds. We also have the benefit of incredible demand. Domestic demand on the beef side, global demand with the shortage of pork, the broiler people are well-positioned.”
In fact, beef prices have recovered since bottoming out at under $100 a hundredweight at the beginning of September, and the national cattle stock has risen to more than 12 million head as of the start of December, up 2 percent from the same time last year.
FarmWeekNow.com advised cattle farmers that they “should take advantage of marketing opportunities, though, as large beef supplies could keep a lid on cattle prices into 2020.”
Trump’s year-and-a-half-old trade war with China has not yet been fully resolved, although earlier this month the president touted Chinese concessions that it would renew ag imports at record levels, $40 billion over two years, in exchange for Trump dropping planned tariffs on $160 billion in Chinese goods. China has not confirmed that agreement, however, and in any case The New York Times reported that pact as “China’s hard-liners win a round in Trump’s trade deal.”
On the expected $40 billion in Chinese ag imports, Chad Hart, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University, told the Associated Press: “History has never been even close” to that figure, and “there’s no clear path to get us there in one year.”