Corn, soybean harvest estimates hold steady

But crop production down from last year, with soybeans off 24 percent, even as Illinois remains No. 1

Illinois crop production has held firm thus far in spite of the early season snowfall. (Flickr/Paul Summers)

By Ted Cox

Illinois crop-production estimates held firm this in November, in spite of early snow that hit much of the state last month. But the projected harvest for both corn and soybeans was well off from last year, with soybeans down almost a quarter from the 2018 record.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its latest monthly Crop Production report Friday. It found the estimated corn and soybean harvests held study in Illinois from the October estimates, but well below last year’s figures, thanks in large part to the rain-delayed spring planting season.

Illinois corn acreage dropped from 10.9 million acres last year to 10.3 million acres, the same projection as in October. The expected yield fell from 210 bushels an acre last year to 179 this year, translating to a drop in the total crop from 2.3 billion bushels last year to 1.8 billion this year.

Illinois continued to place second behind Iowa in state corn production, but it fell to a level just above third-place Nebraska.

Nationally, corn acreage was actually expected to increase slightly to 81.8 million acres. But the yield dropped from 176.4 bushels an acre last year to 167 in November, down from the October estimate of 168.4. That projected a total crop of 13.6 billion bushels, down from 14.4 billion last year and the record of more than 15 billion set in 2015.

Corn farmers actually greeted the news, as according to FarmWeekNow.com the lowered crop estimate bumped the corn price up a nickel to $3.85 a bushel. With almost half the corn crop still in the field as of Nov. 4, estimates were expected to continue to decline through the final 2019 harvest report, to be issued in January. Thus far, according to the November report, the early season blizzard that hit Minnesota and North Dakota did not alter the estimated corn harvest in those states, although sugarbeets saw “substantial changes” in the form of lowered estimates this month.

“The lasting takeaway is the U.S. corn yield is down, and could continue to go that direction,” Joe Camp, of AgriVisor, told FarmWeekNow.com. Corn farmers “saw a bigger than expected reduction” in crop estimates this month. “That was slightly friendly,” he added. “What we didn’t see this time around was a change on the harvested acres. That was something many expected” after that blizzard hit North Dakota and Minnesota. “That did not lead to any revisions of acres.”

Soybeans suffered a steeper drop from last year’s record harvest. Illinois soybean acreage fell from 10.5 million acres last year to 9.9 million this year, with yield down 20 percent from last year’s 63.5 bushels an acre to just 51 this year, level from October’s estimate. That translated to a total state soybean harvest of 507 million bushels, down 24 percent from last year’s 667 million. Illinois remained the top U.S. soybean producer by state, ahead of Iowa, which also saw reductions from last year.

Nationally, soybean acreage dropped from 87.6 million acres last year to 75.6 million this year. Yield fell from 50.6 bushels an acre last year to 46.9 this year, with a total harvest of 3.5 billion bushels, down from last year’s record 4.4 billion and the lowest level since 2013.

But, with soybeans tied up in President Trump’s trade war with China, as well as diminished demand for Chinese feed crops due to an outbreak of African swine fever, soybean stocks actually increased when market traders had expected a decline, so prices held steady at $9 a bushel.

Camp called that “somewhat bearish for soybeans.”