Illinois optimism rises, even as residents consider moving
Taxes are everything to some people who are always running the state down
A sales display at the Savanna Marketplace offers some sound advice. (One Illinois/Ted Cox)
By Ted Cox
You might have seen a poll recently showing that three out of every five Illinoisans are thinking about moving out of the state.
What you might not have seen is the same poll found that the percentage of Illinoisans who think the state is on the right path doubled from last year to this year.
How can that be? Well, as with many a perception problem, it’s more about what you’re looking to find than what’s actually there.
The University of Illinois Springfield Survey Research Office released a poll conducted annually last week. Its findings were interesting across the board, but some aspects got more coverage than others.
Our conservative counterparts at the Center Square emphasized that “six in 10 Illinoisans consider leaving the state.” That’s true enough. The survey of just over 1,000 registered Illinois voters interviewed last month found that 61 percent of those polled “said they had considered moving out of Illinois in the previous 12 months.” That was up from 53 percent at this time last year.
Yet the State Journal-Register did a story the same day on the exact same poll and chose to emphasize that “more Illinoisans think (the) state is going the right way.” That too is true. The survey found that the percentage of Illinoisans who think the state is “heading in the right direction” doubled, from 14 percent last year to 28 percent this year. Men actually proved more optimistic than women, by 32 to 24 percent, and the most optimistic age group consisted of those 18 to 34, 36 percent of whom think the state is on the right track, while just 24 percent of those 45 to 59 felt the same.
That was consistent with a statewide poll released in March by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale, which found that the percentage of Illinois voters who think the state is on the right path had more than doubled, from 9 to 22 percent, from early 2018 to early 2019, shortly after Gov. Pritzker took office. Obviously, that’s a clear trend that remains on the rise.
Last month’s UIS poll also found economic optimism on the rise, as 23 percent considered the state economy excellent or good, up from 15 percent a year ago. Men again were even more optimistic than women, by 28 to 19 percent.
So why are more people looking to leave even when things are looking up? One of the keys to answering that is the word “considering.” The poll finds that the age group most likely to consider a move out of state is those same 18- to 34-year-olds who were more optimistic about the state heading in the right direction. They’re young, at a good time to move in their lives.
The poll also found — and Center Square left this out entirely — that “while a majority of voters say they have considered moving out of Illinois, far fewer report having taken steps to do so.” Barely more than a quarter had actually looked into housing or the cost of living in another state, while just 2 percent — one person in 50 — had actually filed paperwork to rent or buy elsewhere. Some 16 percent reported thinking about a job out of state, but only 5 percent — one in 20 — actually filed an application.
“Respondents reporting a household income of more than $100,000 a year (68 percent) are nearly 10 percentage points higher than other income groups to say they’ve considered moving out of the state, with those reporting a household income lower than $45,000 (58 percent) being least likely,” the poll stated.
But again there’s the divide between “considering” something and actually doing it. True, Illinois has lost population over the last five years, but as the Better Government Association reported in April it was the poor who were compelled to leave the state, while the rich stayed and thrived.
Gov. Pritzker enjoys majority support from across all areas of the state and voter demographics. (One Illinois/Ted Cox)
This inconvenient truth debunks a key part of the narrative anti-tax political forces are using to fight Gov. Pritzker’s “fair tax,” his proposal to amend the Illinois Constitution to allow a graduated income tax, which will be put to a public vote a year from now in the 2020 general election. Senate Minority Leader Bill Brady stated in a June appearance at the City Club of Chicago that the last time Illinois raised taxes, “we saw the largest exodus of middle-income families.” That was just plain “false,” the BGA determined when it looked that statement over.
Our anti-tax pals at the Illinois Policy Institute likewise made a point of emphasizing that $100,000 earners were more likely to weigh a move than those making less than half that, but ignoring the BGA’s research the IPI went on to make the logistical leap that “those most able to afford a move and who stand to lose the most are much more likely to leave than those who can least afford to do so.”
“False,” the BGA has already ruled. Tax fearmongering, we’d call it.
The Chicago Tribune also reported last month that the problem with Illinois’s population loss isn’t actually people moving out: it’s that more people aren’t moving back in.
“Interestingly, if you look only at the rate of people leaving one state for another, Illinois doesn’t particularly stand out,” the story stated. “Illinois ranked No. 21 — near the middle of the pack — on the rate of domestic out-migration in 2017, the most recent year for which those estimates are available.
“Where Illinois really lags, the data show, is in attracting new residents. In 2017, Illinois’s rate of in-migration was third-to-last nationally, even when factoring in people who moved to Illinois from other countries,” it added. “Combine migration losses with an aging population, declining birth rates, and stagnated international migration, and the result is decreased population.”
The IPI and Center Square both made a point of emphasizing that the top reason people cited for considering a move was high taxes. But that again was barely more than a quarter of respondents, 27 percent, closely followed by those taking issue with state government policies, at 17 percent, and those seeking better weather, 15 percent.
The IPI was quick to cite Pritzker’s support for a progressive income tax as a reason for people to move, as well as the higher gas tax, which will help pay for the record $45 billion infrastructure plan, but it never mentioned that the UIS poll also asked voters about their support for the governor.
And what the poll found was the support for the governor — the guy who had worked to raise taxes, in the process by making them more fair to the estimated 97 percent of taxpayers who will pay the same or less — is overwhelming after just nine months in office across all demographics. Some 59 percent of voters “approve of the way Gov. Pritzker is handling his job,” and that includes a majority of voters in Cook County (69 percent), the collar counties (56 percent), and everywhere else in Illinois (51 percent). Minority voters were heavily in favor of Pritzker, and 50 percent of white voters endorsed his work on the job. Those 18- to 34-year-olds who are reported to be the most likely to consider a move are also Pritzker’s strongest base of support, with 64 percent favoring his performance. The lowest age demo in supporting the governor, those 45 to 59, still found a majority in support, 53 percent.
That’s a heck of a lot of backing for someone still in his first year in office who’s been under persistent attack from special-interest groups intent on making their case that all taxes are bad — especially a graduated state income tax.
Sorry, but there’s just not much support for that position as borne out in the survey, although it does suggest another reason taxes are drawing such flak from conservatives. While the survey balanced all major demographic groups according to their percentage of the population statewide, a firm majority of 53 percent responded that they were Democrats or independents leaning Democrat, while just 30 percent said they were Republicans or independents leaning Republican. And, as every political consultant well knows, when you don’t have the numbers for a majority, you muddy up the waters to confuse the issue.
Illinois voters may be confused about whether they want to stay or go, but there’s no confusion about their support for the job the governor is doing, and there’s also no doubt that optimism is on the rise about the state and its economy. That much is clear.